Vanderbilt Climate Change Prediction Market


Type: Vanderbilt Initiative Award (ViA)

Vanderbilt Climate Change Prediction Market (VCCPM) will provide a unique web-based platform to conduct research on individual beliefs on important social topics such as climate change. A typical prediction market establishes contracts that pay $1 if an event occurs at a specified future date. Because users are free to trade, prices reflect the subjective probability that the event will occur. Existing academic-based prediction markets have proven accurate in forecasting political elections, often earlier and more accurately than polls and a robust academic literature has evolved studying prediction markets. Unlike existing prediction markets that focus almost exclusively on short-term political elections, VCCPM focuses on public beliefs about social and scientific outcomes such as climate change – and how they evolve over time. More importantly, it includes long-term predictions, allows for disaggregation of the demographics and political beliefs among participants and also has direct policy and social science research implications.

Lead Faculty in bold

owen graduate school of management

College of arts and science