The Vanderbilt Institute of National Security’s Wicked Problems Lab has released a new policy paper that calls for a bold rethinking of America’s nuclear posture in response to today’s fast-moving technological threats. Titled “Restoring Nuclear Deterrence in the Modern Age,” the paper examines how the long-standing doctrine of Mutually Assured Destruction (MAD) is undercut by advances in hypersonic weapons, autonomous systems, and cyber warfare, and what must be done to restore strategic stability.
For decades, MAD helped prevent global nuclear conflict by ensuring that any first strike would invite devastating retaliation. But as the new paper makes clear, that logic relies on conditions that are rapidly disappearing. “Hypersonics reduce decision time to mere minutes. AI and cyber operations threaten to cloud or corrupt presidential authority. Missile defense complicates retaliatory effectiveness,” the authors write. “Together, these developments are eroding the perception that nuclear war is unwinnable.”
The Wicked Problems Lab advocates transitioning from the traditional nuclear triad to a nuclear pentad. In addition to modernizing the existing triad, this expanded framework emphasizes the development of advanced missile and air defense systems and a cyber-secure, AI-resilient nuclear command, control, and communications (NC3) architecture.
This five-part approach aims not to escalate, but to restore deterrence by making it crystal clear to adversaries that any nuclear attack—no matter how sophisticated—will be met with a decisive response.
Importantly, the paper also emphasizes the importance of diplomacy. Strategic transparency and renewed arms control efforts, particularly in areas such as dual-use and hypersonic technologies, are crucial for maintaining global trust. As the authors note, “A modern pentad is defensive, not escalatory. Its goal is not to win a nuclear war, but to ensure no one ever believes they can.”
In an era where speed, autonomy, and cyber deception are reshaping the battlefield, Restoring Nuclear Deterrence in the Modern Age argues that deterrence must evolve just as rapidly. The consequences of failing to adapt could be catastrophic.
📘 Read the full paper from the Wicked Problems Lab.