Exchange Rate Pass-Through and Inflation: A Nonlinear Time Series Analysis

Working Paper No. 12-W07R

Mototsugu Shintani, Akiko Terada-Hagiwara and Tomoyoshi Yabu


This paper investigates the relationship between the exchange rate pass-through (ERPT) and inflation by estimating a nonlinear time series model. Based on a simple theoretical model of ERPT determination, we show that the dynamics of ERPT can be well approximated by a class of smooth transition autoregressive (STAR) models using the past inflation rate as a transition variable. We employ several U-shaped transition functions in the estimation of the time-varying ERPT to US domestic prices. The estimation result suggests that declines in the ERPT during the 1980s and 1990s are associated with lowered inflation.

Keywords and Phrases: Import prices, inflation indexation, pricing-to-market, smooth transition autoregressive models, sticky prices.

JEL Classification Numbers: C22, E31, F31

Return to List of Titles