February 17, 1998 Contact: Ann Marie Deer Owens (615) 322-2706 annmarie.owens@vanderbilt.edu

U.S. may strike Iraq to preserve its credibility,

says Vanderbilt political scientist

NASHVILLE, Tenn. -- The United States could be forced to attack Iraq to preserve its military credibility in future crises, according to James Lee Ray, a Vanderbilt University professor of political science and an expert in international conflict and causes of war.

"To preserve the advantages of power in the long run as well as the credibility of its current threats, the United States may have to carry out a military strike," said Ray. "Even if our decision-makers have no real confidence that an attack will bring about important changes in our relationship with Iraq, they may think the United States has painted itself into a corner if it does not obtain the concessions it demanded."

Ray does not believe President Clinton would approve a military attack to distract attention from the allegations involving Monica Lewinsky. The investigation has not sapped his support in the polls or hurt contributions to the Democratic Party.

He said that one reason the United States is having trouble getting support from its allies and neutral nations is the overwhelming power advantage that America possesses. Iraq's population is only 20 million and its economy is .5 percent as large as the United States.

"Russia, France and others are somewhat concerned about Saddam Hussein, but they do not like the idea of the United States going ahead on its own authority to carry out a military strikes against other sovereign states," Ray said.

"Most Americans probably do not appreciate just how much more powerful the United States looks to people around the world today than it did a relatively short 10 or 20 years ago," he said.

Ray said there is concern among certain countries as well as some Republican members of Congress that the possible attack will cause further harm to a long-suffering Iraqi people, without getting rid of Saddam Hussein or forcing the inspections.

In addition, while the strikes could provide the United States some convincing photographs of weapon facilities being destroyed, it also could bring television news broadcasts of innocent Iraqi women and children being slaughtered by American bombs, Ray said.

Ray is the author of "Global Politics," a comprehensive textbook on current issues and crises in the global political system that are likely to have the greatest impact on its future.

Editor's note: Professor Ray can be reached for additional comment at (615) 322-6235.

-VU-

Vanderbilt University is a private research university of approximately 5,900 undergraduates and 4,300 graduate and professional students. Founded in 1873, the University comprises 10 schools, a public policy institute, a distinguished medical center and The Freedom Forum First Amendment Center. Vanderbilt offers undergraduate programs in the liberal arts and sciences, education and human development, engineering and music, and a full range of graduate and professional degrees.

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